The risks that the project participants face in developing and building new power projects are multifaceted and complex. Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) is utilized to calculate the combined probable impact of possible risk drivers during the planning and development phases of power projects. QRA can be used to calculate the combined or individual values of the identified project risks. Valuation of risks is crucial for the project selection and development decision process as well as for risk-adjusting project valuations.
QRA can help the project management team rank the project risk drivers by their impact on outcomes and help them allocate their resources accordingly. QRA can also be used to determine a contingency reserve and the time that is necessary to develop and build a project. It is recognized as an approach that can minimize bias in calculating contingency reserves based on project specific risks. This seminar will provide attendees with an understanding of quantitative risk management concepts that are used in project development, execution and risk management programs.
The first part of the seminar will be an introduction to basic statistical concepts for QRA. The second part will introduce quantification methods and examples including: 1) Parametric Modelling, 2) Range Estimating Method, 3) Expected Value Method, and 4) Integrated Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis. Each method will be walked through and explained using a case study developed for the seminar.
The purpose of the seminar is to introduce to the attendees QRA concepts and processes that can be used to calculate the impact of individual or groups of risk drivers on a project�s outcome. Upon completion of this seminar, the attendees will be able to develop an understanding of QRA and participate in quantitative risk assessment workshops more effectively.
